Friday, August 19, 2011

The Problem is not Peak Oil... the Problem is our Politics

"It's incredibly troubling to us as a free society that people would plead guilty to something that they actually did not do." Kay Levine, Professor of Law, Emory University


America's justice system continues to disgrace all Americans... I don't think I need to comment on this. Read it for yourself. Either they are guilty or they are not... being able to win a conviction from the Nancy Grace jury pool is not the point.


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I don't know the writer's politics... but Libertarians will love this.  I look forward to the day that America can get over its post-war self and respect the rights and liberties of its own citizens while it eschews confiscating the people's resources in order to serve the inflated egos of (self)important politicians. Especially presidents (and that's coming from a guy that refuses to engage in "pathological hatred of the president posing as patriotism" and, I'd like to add "posing as an informed opinion" to that.


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Prosecutors claim not to have enough evidence in this case of 2 Miami Beach police officers beating a civilian for turning them in for police brutality - evidence such as a broken nose, black eyes, cuff marks... yet have no problem bringing sexual assault cases (especially in custody cases) without any physical evidence whatsoever... that politics and corruption has infected the justice system with perp walks, attempts to taint the jury pool, selective persecutions... and judges that condone the whole sorry affair... well, we can do better than this.


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The equity markets energy sector seems to be forecasting a steep decline for price of Oil... and it might happen (temporarily)... but I have been sitting with cash and put most of it to work in high dividend paying energy equities, which I view as trading at steep discounts... I don't know that I have ever mentioned names before, but now that I am no longer a "registered person" in the securities industry I am free to do so (and this is not investment advice or a recommendation.... you are on your own!).


Here are some names I have bought recently: Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB), Total (TOT), BP, Exxon (XOM), Conoco (COP), Chevron (CVX), Hess Petroleum (HES), Petro Bras (PBR), SeaDrill (SDRL, and ENI (E)... all but SeaDrill trade on the NYSE.  I also own most of the offshore drillers. Please notice that with the exception of PetroBras, these equities all pay big dividends; the average dividend is twice the yield on the 10 year Treasury. Oil might head lower in the short term... and it might not... that's the risk you take... but I will quote a smart guy I had dinner with recently... he's an energy analyst of sorts... "at this time we are FAR BELOW (my emphasis) the equilibrium price of Oil". 


I think Oil can double from here, and I think the energy equities can go 3X or 4X in that scenario. Time frame? Before Dec 2013. Its just a guestimate... arrived at by eyeballing the inelasticity of the price of Oil... if the data changes, I reserve the right to change my mind (unlike most American's and their political belief systems... if I am wrong, I am GONE).


Of course, I am wrong quite often... its not how you handle the winners that matter in this biz... its how you handle the losers.









1 comment:

  1. The maneuvering in the child murder case isn't about innocence or guilt, it's about keeping Arkansas from being sued by the three guys it jailed for the crime 17 years ago. The question I have is were these men railroaded or was this a simple screwup? There's not enough information in the article to tell me that.
    The Miami police case is the boys in blue taking care of their own, pure and simple. There's plenty of evidence and an eye-witness, but getting a cop on any charge without video proof is all but impossible (that's why bad cops go after cameras). Charges of sexual assault in divorces and custody cases have been called the divorce 'nuke', but enough women have used those charges frivolously (i.e. lying) that they are not being taken as seriously. I know my sister tried that against her third husband to no avail (and her surprise). It doesn't fit the agenda, so has been ignored as much as possible, but false rape claims are more than half of the total rape accusations given to police.

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