The EMU is unwinding, with Greece its first jettison.
The 20th Century will eventually be viewed as the Century of social/fiscal experimentation... with the conclusion being something we adults knew all along - there is no such thing as something for nothing. NOTHING is free, and anything free is NOTHING worth having. Unfortunately, this won't stop people in the future from believing in something for nothing or stopping others from trying to take advantage of people by promising them something for nothing.
I had a nice conversation with Stu Staniford of earlywarn.blogspot.com the other day. I share his view that a Greeek contagion slow down could spread to the other PIIGS... and drop European demand for Oil to its knees (it is my sense that that will be the time to buy Oil).
But I think the Greek thing is small potatoes when compared to the international Corn Crop and Demand picture. In fact, a powerful recession in Europe might be helpful in taking pressure off of Food prices in addition to Oil prices.
Its all about the weather in the growing regions. World inventories of grains (outside of rice... rice is in pretty good shape at the moment) are at multi-decade lows. A weather catastrophe in a major producing region would be very, very interesting politically - even here in the U.S. If you think $5 gasoline is problematic for the 2012 election pols, try $10 per gallon milk.
No comments:
Post a Comment