Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Does U.S. Energy Independence mean US$ Independence for the Rest of the World?

For over 4 decades the U.S. has been an International Debtor - and a big one. There is an old saying:

"If you owe the bank $1 Million, they own you. If you owe the bank $100 BILLION, you own them."

I think that that is very instructive in noodling the following untested hypothesis:

When the U.S. becomes "energy independent" (and it will, one way or another) of the Rest of the World ("ROW") the ROW will become US $ independent.

Or something like that.

Right now, the US$ is unquestionable the world's "reserve currency". But isn't that status a mathematical fact and necessary outcome of being the world's biggest debtor in a fractional reserve banking world? How can the US$ be the world's reserve currency without the US$ DEBT that comes with running a massive trade deficit which was mostly for Oil? Well, I guess it still could be... but The Powers That Be would have to come up with a new mechanism for that... and that would require the cooperation of certain nations that would have no discernible interest in continuing US$ hegemony.

Oil imports have fallen from 12mm + per day to around 5mm per day over the past 7 years. Fracking gave us 4mm+ of that, ethanol another 900k, and efficiency accounted for the balance. Those 7mm (7 MILLION!!) barrels per day of imports that have disappeared? They are NEVER coming back. Not ever. So its all up to U.S. and Canada producers (and Canada will become ever more 51st State-ish in this environment. Apologies, Eh?).

So without that trade deficit for oil, which was financed with funny money (and domestic production has been and will continue to have to be financed with REAL money) it is not readily apparent to me why the ROW would be so interested in trading with each other in US $'ers. Or where the $'ers would come from in the first place if they are not being lent into existence to finance the trade deficit.

For those that might say "well, the U.S. was a major Oil exporter at one time. What's the big deal?" Yes, we were a relatively major oil exporter at a time when the world's currencies were tied to Gold - that was a world with Gold as the "reserve currency". That is not the case now.

If my hypothesis is anywhere close... well, there are serious implications for U.S. financing of its budget deficits and social services deficits and the currency itself. After all, currency valuations are subject to the same supply and demand dynamics as any other commodity.

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.


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